Sunday, December 2, 2007

"Evidence" of UFO technology?

Wait, wait! I'm pretty sure you can't predict what this post is going to be about. Read on:

First, the obvious: Every few years, a group of people say they saw something that was clearly in physical existence---according to them---that falls under the general category of "UFO-using-technology-no-has-ever-seen-before." Scientific commentators always say some version of the same thing: eyewitness testimony is not scientific evidence. (Of course, standards of legal and historical evidence are different than standards of scientific evidence.)

Big yawn, right? But wait. I predict BOTH SIDES of the UFO debate will be changing their tune in the next decade or so. Why?

Video-enabled camera phones (and surveillance cameras) of course. Because of them, each side will have new evidence sometime in the next few years.

Eventually there will be a group of witnesses with these phones who all or mostly believe they saw something close enough to photograph clearly with no credible rationalization outside of a UFO-type explanation. And it will happen again. And again. And once it happens enough times we will have something much closer to actual evidence---or it's absence---than we've had before. The video evidence (three or more simultaneous videos, close enough to show some kind of shape) is going to support the reality or falsity of "advanced technology UFO" explanations---eventually. And large numbers of people on one side of the debate will join the other side, due to the evidence. (Of course, it can be hard to get your phone out fast enough for everything, but groups will get video.)

Both sides of the debate will of course believe in advance that these multiple photographs/videos will support their pre-existing position. Imagine:

A strange object flies alongside a commercial jet. The pilot see it, it shows up on radar, and several passengers take video and photographs of it, most of whom download it to the internet, some from the plane, some after landing. The evidence, the source and timing of the video downloads, should lend itself to supporting or disproving whether there really was something to see. Especially after this has happened several times.

The key of course, is that multiple videos need to be taken and compared. But eventually, this is a certainty, as more and more video-enabled phones are on the market all the time, and groups of people regularly (although not frequently) report UFO-like phenomenon.

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